Money Market Report
The Money Market remained relatively flat near 12.75% during the week before
loosening up at the end of the Nov 6’09 week to 10.10% on Friday. The SBP
injected another PKR 101bn in funds into the market since Saturday bringing the
Weekly
average to 11.69% slightly lower than the average of last week of 11.87%
Call rates however remained stable in the range of 12.80% while secondary yields
on benchmark 6M T-bills came off significantly to 12.25%. PIBs meanwhile
remained largely unmoved in the range of 12.51%. 6M KIBOR however remained
frozen at 12.8% WoW. Liquidity is expected to remain tight in 2Q FY10
necessitating the intervention of the SBP at regular intervals; during the
current week the SBP stepped in with a 7 Repo at 12.17%.
This week’s T-bill Auction saw a spike in bids up to PKR 93bn however the SBP
accepted only PKR 25.3bn from participants. Enthusiasm titled in favour of the
1yr paper indicating the market was anticipating substantial cut in the policy
rate of between 100-200bps. According to our estimates we expect the discount
rate to loosen to 12% in the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement end Nov09. All
tenors saw a marginal shedding on yields between 5-9bps however yields are
expected to remain volatile in 2Q FY10 given the limited maturities of
government securities and delays in external financing which could emerge.
Foreign Exchange Market
The USD traded in a band of 23 paisas during the week with trades commencing at
PKR 83.75 and inching up to a low of PKR 83.80 before finally closing at PKR
83.57.
In forward trades, the shorter tenors remained the most active as banks remained
short of USD liquidity due to SBP pickup. Earlier in the week, swap points for
the shorter tenors 1W, 2W and 1mo stood at 17, 31 and 66 paisas and closed at
13.5, 27 and 64 paisas, respectively.
Longer tenors showed some stability through out the week with trades for 3mo
paper stable at 203 paisas where as 6mo paper rose to 405 paisas and closed at
404 paisas.
The PKR:USD parity has been reflecting some stress derived from the country’s
security concerns and political shakiness.
In the coming week shorter tenors may exhibit greater volatility whereas longer
tenors are likely to reflect stability.